Crude and Gasoline Forward Curves

Global crude and gasoline benchmarks remain backwardated.

Being told this morning that NY Harbor cash gasoline is trading 42 cents above October RBOB futures.  I said in August in the WSJ that supplies were expected to remain tight for the next few months. 

"Anybody who needs to purchase gasoline over the next six months, they're locking in prices right now," said Jason Williams, an energy broker at Coquest, a brokerage firm in Dallas. "They are worried that the supply shortages might last for the next three months."

Crude

Gasoline

Urals blend arbitrage on strong Med demand

Russian export blend Urals is gaining strength on tight supplies in the region on the back of EU sanctions.  Above is the forward curve for the REBCO contract on CME.  While the REBCO contract is for delivery at a port much further north, Primorsk, the Med arb is said to be taking place between Novorossiysk and Spain.  

via Reuters,

"The arbitrage to the Mediterranean is open," said a trader
with a major house, adding he had heard that at least one
100,000 tonne cargo of Urals might be moving in this direction
from the Baltic.
    "If you want to bring a cargo to the Med, to Spain for
example, the arb is workable," said another trader with a large
company.

A snapshot of today's traffic at Novorossiysk shows several tankers and bulk carriers awaiting their loading windows.  The red icons are wet tankers while the green are dry bulk.