Showing posts with label hft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hft. Show all posts

Monday, April 7, 2014

Bringing some balance to HFT

This guy gets it.  There needs to be a more thorough conversation about HFT and its merits.  The same people fighting against HFT today would probably have protested new sailing technology in the 1700s.

Embrace change.  It's the only constant.  

Sunday, August 5, 2012

Back to Microstructure: ETF Securities USD and EUR Coffee Offerings

ETF Securities (ETFS) offers a multitude of dual-listed commodity, currency, and index ETFs.  This is a brief study of three of those securities designed to track the DJ-UBS Coffee Sub-Index.  ETFS offers a German-listed, Euro-denominated security under the ticker OD7B; an LSE-listed, US dollar-denominated security under the ticker COFF; and a French-listed, Euro-denominated security under the ticker COFFP.

The cash EUR/USD was used for price discovery and all prices were recorded 5 July 2012.  All times are CST.

The spread between the currency-adjusted OD7B shares versus the COFF shares:


The spread between the currency-adjusted COFFP shares versus the COFF shares:


Note the frequent liquidity-shocks absorbed by each spread uniquely.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

On global freight, network theory, and microstructure

There is a strong similarity between the microstructure of high-frequency arbitrage and the vast network of global, national, and local dry and wet freight.  ICE and NOS exchanges offer physical and financially settled freight derivatives to manage freight risk when operating on a global physical scale.  These forwards provide a basis for pricing physical spreads between terminals and ports. 

Cross market arbitrage uses currency as a general medium of price discovery.  Physical commodity arbitrage uses the freight market in a similar fashion. 

To illustrate the point further: A Year of Global Shipping Routes Mapped by GPS.


Each system contains popular or frequently traversed nodes offering price discovery - consider the relationship of CME's GC contract as the global benchmark for gold and the pricing of related ETFs relying on that fundamental relationship.  Each system contains bottlenecks and capacity restrictions, from pipeline radius to canal width to latency limitations.

Strogatz and Watts (1998) and Watts (2002) (pdf) offer insight into network complexity, how and why certain nodes become popular, and responses in the event of network constraints or cascades.  Knorring (2003) (pdf) provides insight into route choices based on distance traveled and perceived congestion between two comparable routes. Morse and He (2010) (pdf) and Kumagai, Arai and Iwata (2001) (pdf) provide context for pricing physical arbitrage via forward markets and import/export flows.

In the end, there is something to be learned from every network containing profit-seeking entities. 

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Urals Blend Arbitrage Continues From Novorossiysk

The Urals arbitrage looks to be strengthening relative to the REBCO curve on Thursday.  Urals is a blend of light and heavy crude oils from West Siberia, the Ural Mountains in Russia, and flow from fields in the Caspian, an area rich in oil history.

Following an export suspension after a flood last week, Novorossiysk  is once again busy, adding 2 tankers between yesterday and today. 

Green icons are bulk traffic: wheat, coal, iron ore.  Red icons are chemical, crude, and gas tankers.  Live marine traffic data available here.


Several were stuck in rotation waiting for space through the passage at Istanbul, one of several major choke-points along the way.  Below is a picture of the congestion at 10:00pm Istanbul time.


And a closer look at the actual channel:


via Reuters,
Urals differentials in the south were still said to be strong on the back of tight supplies. The July programme is largely sold out with only part cargoes left.
    "It's all sold out. It's part cargoes changing hands at ridiculously high levels," said one trader.
    One Italian refiner has started taking Urals cargoes from North West Europe to the Mediterranean in a rare arbitrage movement, taking advantage of the north/south price gap, a trader said.

Immediate tanker (red icon) traffic at Primorsk, the main export terminal for Urals in the Baltic, remains surprisingly dry.


Thursday, July 12, 2012

Urals blend arbitrage on strong Med demand


Russian export blend Urals is gaining strength on tight supplies in the region on the back of EU sanctions.  Above is the forward curve for the REBCO contract on CME.  While the REBCO contract is for delivery at a port much further north, Primorsk, the Med arb is said to be taking place between Novorossiysk and Spain.  

via Reuters,
"The arbitrage to the Mediterranean is open," said a trader
with a major house, adding he had heard that at least one
100,000 tonne cargo of Urals might be moving in this direction
from the Baltic.
    "If you want to bring a cargo to the Med, to Spain for
example, the arb is workable," said another trader with a large
company.

A snapshot of today's traffic at Novorossiysk shows several tankers and bulk carriers awaiting their loading windows.  The red icons are wet tankers while the green are dry bulk. 

Thursday, June 21, 2012

ETF / Futures Arbitrage: NYMEX Gold vs. two non-USD ETFs

This study combines the principles of ADR and ETF/Futures arbitrage.  Prior examples of ETF/Futures arbitrage have only included US-listed futures and US-listed ETFs.  ADR studies on the contrary have included many foreign listed, non-USD denominated assets.  It is the goal of this and future studies to expand on this research by including multiple legs and various competing securities (for instance, comparing cash FX vs. futures FX as a hedging vehicle).

Both ETFs in this case suffer from a significant lack of any meaningful depth in the order book.  The bid/ask spread of each ETF make them prohibitively expensive to trade intraday as well, especially given the volatility of the studied periods.  The markets overlap from 22:45 CST to 05:00 CST, and both studies were recorded June 20, 2012.





Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Today's NYC Electricity Market

Bloomberg covered the action in today's North Eastern electricity markets.  While PJM and NEISO caught bids, the NYISO grid saw the most action.  The "load" on the graph to the right is the electricity usage of the NYC node within the NYISO grid relative to the spot price of electricity.

Further reading:
Quantitative Methods for Electricity Trading & Risk Management

Risk Management in Commodity Markets

Commodities and Commodity Derivatives

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

WTI Forward Curve: Where Abundant Supply Meets Geopolitical Uncertainty

Several of the spreads on the front of the curve are nearing very compelling levels.  And if you're interested in a longer term play on WTI, consider the sloping severity of the back of the curve. 


via 4 Apr Reuters,
Traders said between 20-30 cargoes of Nigerian crude oil were still unsold from the April-May programmes.

"Flow to the States is minimal. Light, sweet is plentiful in the U.S. so there is limited W. African demand," said a West African crude oil trader.
via 4 Apr Reuters,
"There is certainly a discrepancy between futures and cash crude markets," said Olivier Jakob from Petromatrix consultancy. "There is no shortage in the physical market, but there is a lot of uncertainty regarding Iran. If you want to hedge Iranian risk, you do it on the futures market."

"The reality today is that the market is well oversupplied. OPEC production has been rising consistently since September and will probably continue rising further," said Colin Smith, energy strategist at VTB Capital.

"At some point - as happened in 2008 - the markets will take note, perhaps before it shows up in the inventories but certainly as and when it does show up in the inventories," said Smith, whose bank is a top lender to the Russian oil industry.
via 3 Apr Reuters,
Novorossiisk Port
Delays at Russia's main Black Sea port of Novorossiisk due to bad weather continued to crimp supplies in the Mediterranean in contrast with well supplied markets in the Baltic, where Russia opened a new export outlet of Ust-Luga last month.

"The arb between the Baltic and the Med is well open now... Some 300,000 tonnes might have already sailed," a trader with a major said, referring to arbitrage shipments from northern Europe to the Mediterranean where prices are around $1 per barrel higher.

"Everybody is waiting to see if the U.S. and EU will release strategic stocks," said a trader. "Nobody is buying."
via 3 Apr Reuters,
Nabiullina said that Urals blend URL-E crude price forecasts for the following two years have been left unchanged at $97 and $101 respectively, adding that the ministry expects oil prices to decline from current levels.
via 2 Apr Reuters,
"Supply is really ample here. You can see any kind of crude oil you can think of. West African, Caribbean, North Sea and so on," a trader with an oil refiner said.
via 30 Mar Reuters,
"Urals is typically depressed around April-May due to the spring maintenance season. This year you also have extra volumes from Ust-Luga," he added referring to a new Russian Baltic Sea port, which was launched earlier this month.

In the Platts window, Litasco offered a rare 60,000-tonne Siberian Light cargo at dated Brent minus 25 cents loading from port of Tuapse in mid-April, more than $1 per barrel weaker than previous price indications, but could find no buyers.  "A couple of other cargoes are still available and are being offered," one trader said.  Socar offered Azeri Light a dated Brent plus $3.50, slightly weaker than previous price estimates, but found no buyers, traders said.      
via 29 Apr Reuters,
Traders estimated that Glencore, the world's largest publicly listed trader, was set to market up to 10 Urals cargoes in the Baltic in April, a number not seen for many years while the market for Russian crude was dominated by other players. "Glencore is definitely coming back big," one trader with a major oil company said. "I would say they are now sharing leading positions with Shell and Statoil."               


Sanction Arbitrage in Action: Iranian ship registered in Bolivia carrying Syrian crude sold to China


via Vesseltracker.com,

An Iranian tanker carrying Syrian crude oil is being held in Egyptian waters because it has not paid the Suez Canal Authority the fees required for passage, the Egyptian authority said on Monday.

Reuters reported on Friday that the M.T.Tour, owned by ISIM Tour Ltd and identified by the U.S. Treasury Department as a sanctions-evading company set up by Iran, was shipping a cargo of Syrian crude to a state-run Chinese company.

via Reuters,

The official added that the tanker had come from Syria and was heading to Singapore. He said it had been carrying a Maltese flag but was now registered under a Bolivian flag. The official had no knowledge of any link with Iran.

Malta said on Sunday it was delisting the M.T. Tour on learning that it was carrying Syrian oil in breach of international sanctions.

Monday, March 19, 2012

ETF / Futures Arbitrage: Deviation in Practice

This is a basic ETF / futures spread built from a block of shares traded against an offsetting futures contract.  Several breaks occur in this study from August, 2011.

Hi-Res

Hi-Res

Hi-Res

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

WTI Forward Curve Update & Physical News - 22 Feb 2012

The front 12 months are particularly curious.  Some news clippings this week:

Feb 22, via Reuters:
"Sentiment in the Asia-Pacific crude market firmed on Wednesday, with Australia's Enfield crude expected to fetch double-digit premiums due to tight supplies.

One cargo of April-lifting Enfield, which was delayed from March, being offered and could trade at a record premium above $10 to dated Brent, a trader said.

Premiums for sweet regional crudes for April have risen across the board after Cyclone Iggy disrupted Australian supplies and Sudanese grades remains off the market."

Feb 22, via Reuters:
"Russian Urals crude eased steeply on Wednesday as traders cited a spike in oil futures and expectations of a large loading programme in March as weighing on the export grade of the world's largest oil producer.

"We have yet to fully see a full loading programme for March. But people expect it to be quite good, plus there is a factor of the launch of (a new Baltic port) Ust Luga," one trader with a major said.

In the Platts window, Trafigura offered a March 3-7 cargo of Urals from the Baltic at dated Brent minus 55 cents, some 50 cents lower than price indications earlier this week, traders said.

In the Mediterranean, Eni offered a 80,000-tonne March 3-7 cargo at dated Brent minus 60 cents, some 60-70 cents lower than price indications earlier this week, traders said."
Feb 21, via Reuters:
"URALS * On Monday, Lukoil offered a March 3-7 Urals cargo from Primorsk at dated Brent minus 5 cents, some 20 cents lower than price indications last week.

UST-LUGA * Russia's new Ust-Luga Baltic oil terminal, undergoing repairs after damage caused by multiple landslides, will be ready to start loading crude in the coming weeks and may handle a few cargoes in March, a spokesman for Transneft said."

Feb 20, via Reuters:
"Russian Urals crude eased in the Baltic on Monday as fresh loading dates for March showed healthy supply volumes from the world's largest oil producer."
MS Excel

eSignal Futuresource - Hi-Res
IB TWS - Hi-Res

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Class Structure Spreading: Berkshire Hathaway

This is the spread of Berkshire Class A vs. Class B shares.  Obviously capital intensive.  Lei goes into more detail in his 2008 paper on the subject.  Prices were recorded 11 September, 2011.


Thursday, February 9, 2012

Lloyd's of London: The Original Put Writers

Several years ago I picked up a 1973 copy of Antony Brown's Lloyd's of London.  The following is an excerpt from pages 51-52.  I take no credit.

The Titanic.

'Presently we moved on from the subject of the syndicate, and I asked him [H.G. Chester] about the San Francisco earthquake, which was one of Lloyd's greatest catastrophes in this century.  He hadn't lost much by it himself, he said, being in the marine market. What he did remember was the Titanic.  In the outer office he still had the entry relating to her in the Loss Book, if I'd like to see it.

He pressed the buzzer and one of the secretaries came in.  'Which year was the Titanic?' he asked thoughtfully.  '1912?  April 14, wasn't it?'

He flicked the pages till he came to April 14. There were five sets of figures in the Loss column, written with a scratch pen in handwriting that had gone a gingery colour with time. 'That's my handwriting, sixty years ago. £542 on jewellery (sic),' he read. '£5,000 on the hull to the brokers. Two additional lines to other brokers. We must have lost rather more than £8,000.' 

Could he remember what it had been like in the Room when the news about the Titanic had come through?  He thought for a moment, then admitted a trifle grudgingly that on that particular morning the market had been in a bit of a panic. 'After she was first notified as having hit the iceberg, the overdue brokers started rushing round.' Normally, he explained, the overdue brokers dealt in sailing ships that were held in the doldrums - if a ship became overdue, then the underwriters who had insured her would try to lay off a possible loss by reinsurance.

'Once the Titanic was known to have hit the iceberg, of course the rate was very high.  There was one man who wrote a lot of reinsurance on her all the same - that was Sir Percy MacKinnon, who afterwards became Chairman of Lloyd's.  I remember his father Benjamin,' added Mr. Chester as an afterthought. 'He used to sit on the box wearing a top-hat.  Anyway, Sir Percy MacKinnon believed the Titanic wouldn't sink, she was such a marvellous (sic) ship and there'd been so much publicity about her.  So he wrote the reinsurance on her,' he repeated reflectively. 'He must have lost a lot of money.'

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Sunday, January 29, 2012

ADR Arbitrage Across Currencies and Class Structure: Evidence from Ericsson in USD, SEK, and EUR

Ericsson is currently dual listed in Stockholm in SEK, New York in USD, and Frankfurt in EUR.  The SEK shares consist of A and B classes, while the USD and EUR listed shares are both equivalent to the SEK class B shares.  This is a basic ADR structure traded through 3 currency pairs and 2 different class structures.

As evidenced in the first chart below, at the time of the recording, the USD-listed ERIC shares were equivalent in price to the SEK-listed ERIC.B shares.  Note the ERCB shares correspond to the right axis and trade at a roughly 50% discount to USD shares.  The Class A SEK-denominated ERIC.A shares trade at a discount to their own and USD-listed B Class equivalents.

This study incorporated the cash markets for the EUR/USD, EUR/SEK, and USD/SEK exchange rates.  The principles of triangular arbitrage were incorporated to derive values across the structure.

The Currency Adjusted USD-value Shares:

The US-listed shares register a bid/ask as early as 3am CST and track the SEK-listed B shares.  

The Currency Adjusted Openings:

As is usually the case for these studies, the outright share prices correspond to the left axis, while the spread value corresponds to the right axis.

USD-listed shares vs. SEK-listed A and B Class shares.



EUR-listed B Class shares vs. USD-listed B Class shares.


EUR-listed B Class shares vs. SEK-listed A and B Class shares.



A closer look at the turbulence in the bid/ask of the EUR-listed ERCB shares.  I believe this is similar in nature to some of the research posted by Nanex.



And in the closing 5 minutes, the SEK-listed ERIC.B shares experience some unusual turbulence.  I don't like to speculate because this could have happened for any number of reasons (data integrity, software integrity, etc.), but judging by the increase in the bid/ask spread of the ERCB shares (EUR-listed), the market maker appears to have known it was coming.



A closer look at the overall spreads during the 8:30-10:30am CST market overlap. Again, in order as before.

USD-listed shares vs. SEK-listed A and B Class shares.



EUR-listed B Class shares vs. USD-listed B Class shares.


EUR-listed B Class shares vs. SEK-listed A and B Class shares.



Further Reading:
ADR Market Timing: In Which Market Do Issuers Possess Better Market-Timing Ability and what is the Role of Regulations?
Impact of ADR Listing on the Trading Volume in the Domestic Market

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Triangular Arbitrage & The Introduction of Liquidity to the Interbank Currency Markets: Evidence from GBP/MXN, JPY/MXN, and GBP/JPY Exchange Rates

Working through some archives, came across some old recordings that I never got a chance to sift through.  Below are the GBP/MXN, JPY/MXN, and GBP/JPY exchange rates recorded from the currency open on Sunday, October 2, 2011 through October 3, 2011.  Following the outright prices below are the spreads constructed from finding the synthetic exchange rates via triangular arbitrage and spreading them to their live equivalents.  

Because of the ease of this arbitrage and the automated nature of these trades, this relationship is a popular topic on this blog.  The market opening and subsequent introduction of liquidity into the interbank market has been particularly interesting to study. 

The Outrights.

  

 

 

These are the aforementioned spreads between the synthetic and live exchange rates.   Despite the volatility of the underlying rates, the spreads unsurprisingly remain remarkably consistent.  More detail on this type of trade can be found in the links below.

The Spreads.

  



Previous studies have touched on the following relationships:
CHF, JPY, and NZD
USD, SEK, and NOK
KRW, JPY, and HKD
USD, AUD, and HKD

Further Reading:
Heterogeneous Market-Making in Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from Individual Bank Responses to Central Bank Interventions (pdf)
Spread Components and Dealer Profits in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (pdf)