Showing posts with label eur/usd. Show all posts
Showing posts with label eur/usd. Show all posts

Sunday, January 29, 2012

ADR Arbitrage Across Currencies and Class Structure: Evidence from Ericsson in USD, SEK, and EUR

Ericsson is currently dual listed in Stockholm in SEK, New York in USD, and Frankfurt in EUR.  The SEK shares consist of A and B classes, while the USD and EUR listed shares are both equivalent to the SEK class B shares.  This is a basic ADR structure traded through 3 currency pairs and 2 different class structures.

As evidenced in the first chart below, at the time of the recording, the USD-listed ERIC shares were equivalent in price to the SEK-listed ERIC.B shares.  Note the ERCB shares correspond to the right axis and trade at a roughly 50% discount to USD shares.  The Class A SEK-denominated ERIC.A shares trade at a discount to their own and USD-listed B Class equivalents.

This study incorporated the cash markets for the EUR/USD, EUR/SEK, and USD/SEK exchange rates.  The principles of triangular arbitrage were incorporated to derive values across the structure.

The Currency Adjusted USD-value Shares:

The US-listed shares register a bid/ask as early as 3am CST and track the SEK-listed B shares.  

The Currency Adjusted Openings:

As is usually the case for these studies, the outright share prices correspond to the left axis, while the spread value corresponds to the right axis.

USD-listed shares vs. SEK-listed A and B Class shares.



EUR-listed B Class shares vs. USD-listed B Class shares.


EUR-listed B Class shares vs. SEK-listed A and B Class shares.



A closer look at the turbulence in the bid/ask of the EUR-listed ERCB shares.  I believe this is similar in nature to some of the research posted by Nanex.



And in the closing 5 minutes, the SEK-listed ERIC.B shares experience some unusual turbulence.  I don't like to speculate because this could have happened for any number of reasons (data integrity, software integrity, etc.), but judging by the increase in the bid/ask spread of the ERCB shares (EUR-listed), the market maker appears to have known it was coming.



A closer look at the overall spreads during the 8:30-10:30am CST market overlap. Again, in order as before.

USD-listed shares vs. SEK-listed A and B Class shares.



EUR-listed B Class shares vs. USD-listed B Class shares.


EUR-listed B Class shares vs. SEK-listed A and B Class shares.



Further Reading:
ADR Market Timing: In Which Market Do Issuers Possess Better Market-Timing Ability and what is the Role of Regulations?
Impact of ADR Listing on the Trading Volume in the Domestic Market

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Price Discovery: NYMEX Copper futures spread to Freeport McMoRan

NYMEX HG Forward Curve [edit with new]
This was an interesting one.  Below is the spread built
from trading a block of USD-denominated FCX shares (additional spreads can be built from the EUR-denominated) against the large (HG) NYMEX Copper futures.  A mini contract is available (QC) equal to half the size of the HG contract but suffers from a significant lack of liquidity relative to the HG contract.

The December contract was used in this study because it is the most liquid and maintains the tightest bid/ask spread as evidenced by the above forward curve.  Because the bid/ask spread is a function [pdf] of a market-maker's perceived risk, it is interesting to note the relative liquidity of different contracts on the curve.

Notice on the right of the chart when markets begin to perform the zeroing-in function once again.  Unfortunately, due to the large number of quote changes, Excel ran out of rows.  This appears to be a consistent problem.


Friday, August 19, 2011

ETF / Futures Arbitrage: FXE and EUR Futures

This is the arbitrage constructed from trading the CME-listed EUR/USD Futures contract (6E) against the CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (FXE).  Similar posts can be found discussing the IWM/TF and FXB/6B spreads.  The synthetic spread between the two products can be bought or sold, depending on which trades you make in the underlying legs (6E, FXE).  Due to the nature of both Globex and the many electronic markets providing liquidity for FXE, this particular trade is once again relegated to the realm of microsecond and co-located trading.

3:00am - 3:00pm CST, April 8, 2011

6:09am - 3:00pm CST, April 8, 2011

6:48am - 3:00pm CST, April 8, 2011

Opening 5 Minutes, 8:30am - 8:35am CST, April 8, 2011

Opening Hour, 8:30am - 9:30am CST, April 8, 2011

Full Open Market, 8:30am - 3:00pm CST, April 8, 2011

Closing Hour, 2:00pm - 3:00pm CST, April 8, 2011

Further Reading:
Why We Have a Correlation Bubble (pdf) (JP Morgan's Global Equity Derivatives & Delta One Strategy)